Breaking Bad Series Finale Predictions

It is no twist of fate that Breaking Bad is told in five seasons, the fifth one elongated to span two years instead of one. For six seasons wouldn’t be very Shakespearean. In the climax of Act III, Jesse murders Gale, Walt’s fungible replacement and successor. Jesse pulls the trigger with such reluctance and with teary eyed decomposition that we feel sorry for him, not Gale. At this point, we celebrate Gale’s death so Walt may live. Walt is still the tragic hero whose cancerous outgrowth is a physical manifestation of his disheveled socioeconomic status and paraplegic son.

The audience’s sympathy for Walt flips in Act IV with the hero’s downfall. Walt succeeds to eliminate Gus from the equation but devolves and is dehumanized down to the last scene when he is revealed to have poisoned the child of Jesse’s love interest. The fourth season ends with a full cast of unlikeable characters, none of whom the viewer can feel the least bit sorry for (with the exception of Jesse). Walt’s dehumanization continues into the fifth and final season as Walt’s ego is further developed. In the third installment, Walt orchestrates Jesse’s breakup with his girlfriend, using the departed Gale remorselessly as leverage.

Jesse, who is best described as Walt’s antithesis was stupid when Walt was smart and now the two have their roles reversed. It was Jesse who thought of using magnets to erase Gus’s incriminating computer and it was Jesse who offered to pay for Mike’s “legacy payments” (to keep imprisoned past-associates’ mouths shut). Walt, who is uncomfortable letting Jesse take the higher moral ground, capitulates and offers to pay his share too.

Walt’s finishing speech about how pawns overreach might be construed to be directed at Mike, who he later kills. But the warning is actually directed at Jesse. The final episode will have a final encounter between the antitheses and probably some final show-down. Walt will die, as any tragic hero does, either at the hands of Jesse or himself (or Skylar, though since her guilt has already been sealed, is an unlikely hero).

Breaking Bad is certainly not a feel-good TV series. It is a dark comedy that reveals the worst in everyone. It is overwhelmingly defeatist. But the poor viewers who have watched the deadly spiral for six years will be happy to see a light at the end of the tunnel. I believe it is called Catharsis.

Adapted from the July 31, 2012 post

Toronto Life 2013 Restaurant List Audit

On a train, somewhere in Paris, I browsed Toronto's best new restaurants with a jealous eye and a hungry stomach. My summer food-romps have very much centred around rectifying the wrong of attending only one of the top ten. The next nine followed, some easier than others; some costlier too. The top ten all share a sense of purpose and discontent for the same-old. Some were better at subverting the rule. It looks like the best were the middling restaurants (Farmhouse, Grove, JaBistro), all receiving five stars for their smart and cuisine-leading menus. The top fared poorly: Shoto and Daisho were both disappointments; so was Hopgood Foodliner. Although Toronto Life knows how to pick the top 10, its order is suspect.
  1. Sept 4: Momofuku Shōtō ★★★
  2. Jan 11: Edulis ★★★★
  3. June 7: daishō (★)
  4. May 17: Hopgood Foodliner ★★
  5. June 29: Farmhouse Tavern ★★★★★
  6. Sept 5: The Grove ★★★★★
  7. May 20: JaBistro ★★★★★
  8. Aug 16: Kingyo ★★
  9. July 31: Patria ★★★
  10. June 15: Ursa ★★★★

The Bible Should be Required Knowledge

Note: "bible" in this article refers to the collective stories in the Abrahamic religions and not specifically the Christian variety.

In a 10-part miniseries, the History Channel retells the most important story of human existence. It is the basis of the religions of over half of the world’s population, though the series is predominantly from the Christian perspective, i.e. the first five episodes consider the Old Testament and the last five, the New.

The series elucidates and simplifies the convoluted monomyth and relieves the many misconceptions about the religions. At its core, the bible explains the Jewish struggle to establish and defend its own nation. Its events straddle the tumultuous Mesopotamian, Egyptian, Hellenistic and Roman periods, the age of civilization and the brutality that came with it.

Abraham leaves Mesopotamia to find the Promised Land. He proves his loyalty to god by offering his son. Moses leads enslaved Jews out of the Egypt and finds the Ten Commandments. The next stories can be summarized by Handel’s (lesser known) oratorios: Joshua, Samson and Saul, in that order. Otherwise, the heroes can be seen as protectorates of Judaism against oppressors: Moses against the Egyptians, Samson against the Philistines, Daniel against the Babylonians. It was a time when City-states rose and fell by the sword. The golden age of Israel is formed when David defeats Goliath and conquers Jerusalem, the subject of strife to this day.

A marked shift occurs with the story of Jesus, the effective division between Christianity and Judaism. Although the Old Testament is fraught with moral quandaries, some that question God’s wisdom (like Joshua’s slaughter of Jericho and David’s infidelity) the New Testament is sanitized and easier to swallow. Jesus is born in a manger in Bethlehem of Mary through Immaculate Conception. Jews do not accept Jesus as the Messiah (or the idea of “The Holy Trinity) as Christians do. They kill Jesus. The disciples spread Jesus’s new religion, which turns into Christianity.

Constantine accepts Christianity as a valid religion. In 380 AD, Theodosius I recognizes it as the religion of Rome. As Rome splits into east and west, so does the religion (Roman Catholicism and Orthodoxy Catholicism). Protestantism is created in the 16th century with Martin Luther in Germany, John Calvin in France and Henry VIII in England.

Islam begins with the prophet Mohammed in the 7th century. It is an offshoot of Judaism with the same Jewish prophets: Adam, Noah (Nuh), Abraham (Ibrahim), Moses (Musa) and Jesus (Isa). These similarities are troubling too. The contest for the Promised Land is the root cause of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. It was contested between Christians and Muslims during the many crusades.

The story of the bible is the most universalized story on humanity. Its power is witnessed through its timelessness and accessibility across cultures (the Gospel has been translated into over 500 languages). It guides the actions and morals of the majority of humanity and therefore the most prevalent approach to ethics and law. As proclaimed at the title screen, they are stories that have “changed our world”.

The greatest weakness of the series is the interpretation of events from a singular viewpoint, through acceptable given it is the most prevalent viewpoint. The Producers Downey (who also plays Mother Mary) and Burnett may be criticized for being devout Christians who propose teaching the Bible at all U.S. schools. I agree with this. It is no worse than having a Eurocentric curriculum as all curricula of western society do. It is invaluable to understanding of literature and history (Shakespeare, for example). Ideally, studying the bible would be done from varied perspectives and using it to understand our collective history and present.

Discussing the bible in public discourse is a social faux-pas. It is discouraging the understanding of a key fabric of humanity. This trend needs to be reversed. Watching this miniseries is a good way to start.

 

In

Stereotypes of Consultants, Bankers, Lawyers and Accountants

The latest Suits episode had a shot of the CN tower, Daniel Day Lewis playing MacBeth, and a reference to Jean Valjean. More importantly, there was a scene on lawyers vs. bankers. The professional services career paths include banking, consulting, law and accounting. Queen’s Commerce is a machine that funnels people into each of these disciplines with relative ease. At their core, they are all consultants in their own right – they help firms solve their most difficult problems.

Banking, law and accounting add value through specialization. Most firms have these functions in-house but not enough to handle short, extensive spurts (like an M&A transaction). It would be uneconomical to hire a full service team year-round for the odd requirement. Consultants benefit from specialization, but to a lesser degree. A consultant is paid to think, which does not seem to be a skill that benefits from specialization. Instead, consultancies profit from labour arbitrage: they rent out brains to firms that cannot otherwise attract or afford them year-round.

At my group, we hire advisers from each of the four functions. Although each has its own scope, they end up doing similar things. In one case, when the consultants and bankers couldn’t agree on the numbers, the accountants came into give a third opinion. Stereotypes are reinforced. The bankers are the optimists (they only get paid on success); the lawyers are the pessimists (they don’t want to be sued). The lawyers can’t do math: in one exercise, their percentages added up to 90%. The accountants are soft spoken and mention IFRS in every other sentence. The consultants love talking in the clouds. They are brainy, well-dressed and have the best mints. The bankers never say no and stay up stupidly late.

In

The Problem with Scholarships

Scholarships for the 2013-2014 year have largely been determined. It allows for a look back into the financial aid received over the last four years to assess the validity and effectiveness of monies received. Financial aid is the means by which universities acquire a student body that is advantageous to the perception of the institution and for the future quality of alumni (and therefore, future funding). Private universities are more adept at providing financial aid because they have turned it into an intrinsic part of their business model: pay for top talent against fierce competition and make a return thereafter. 

Scholarship Distribution by Type

My own experience with scholarships has been sweet-and-sour. I have probably amassed more funding than the average student; but I have not received any major scholarship, nor have I received many scholarships where an application is required. The highest dollar scholarship I have received is $4000. The total, I will not publically state, but it is by no means an unprecedented amount.

55% of financial aid funding was from automatic grade-based scholarships. Half of it was awarded upon entrance. For an institution, talent acquisition is more difficult than talent retention.  But the preference for entrance scholarships falls apart given the disparity in grading at the high school level. Determining over one-fourth of scholarship funding by inconsistent evaluation is daft. From the institution’s perspective, it incentivizes a pseudo-random sample of students to attend.

The other half of automatic scholarships is not without its problems but is significantly fairer. Students take a repertoire of similar courses with similar grade distributions so that the highest performing students receive the highest payouts. But grade calculations are questionable and uniformity of grade distributions class-to-class is not assured. Also, universities do not benefit; students who are high performers need not the monetary persuasion.

Scholarship Distribution by Year

How to improve scholarship funding

Large scholarships (e.g. $500+) should have transparent eligibility criteria (e.g. female students who have taken COMM X, Y and Z in previous years). Scholarship descriptions in their current state are obnoxiously ambiguous: are they awarded on cumulative or yearly rankings? Are courses taken under Arts and Science excluded? These particulars have significant implications for payout. Specifying criteria clearly improves student goals and levels the playing field.

This is particular true for the 12% from course-specific scholarships. One commerce award is rumoured to be based on the average of the 160-series courses. In my year, the grades spanned both percentages and GPA, making the entire process highly debatable. These idiosyncrasies need to be explained in advance. 

However the plunder is divided up, there will always be complaints, not least because the losers far outnumber the winners. It is, therefore, in the university's best interest to be methodical when determining awards and clear about how performance is measured. Transparency protects universities from sour students and accusations of favouritism. It protects the rights of donors and awards specific types of performance the university or the donor intends to award. Finally, it's fair.

In

Unpaid Internships: a Market Failure

Many firms offer unpaid internships. Bell’s Professional Management Program (PMP) exploits 70 free interns a year. I say exploit primarily because ‘to employ’ would be grammatically incorrect. 90% of unpaid internships are forms of exploitation, according to one lawyer. Firms take advantage of a competitive hiring environment by offering brand value to interns instead of monetary value. This is improper.

To use brand value as payment is readily done. The most prestigious firms in the finance and consulting industries do not have the highest pay. This is the justified result of a market economy: in top firms, the supply exceeds demand, pushing wages down. Furthermore “producer surplus” is accrued to the employee as he is willing to work for even less: the employee may have justified a lower immediate compensation for the present value of future value derived from an improved résumé.

At Bell, the supply-demand dynamics are vastly in the employer’s favour. Out of 2,000 applicants, Bell accepts 70. For economically optimal results, Bell should lower prices further – i.e. ask interns to pay to work at Bell headquarters. Indeed, this abstraction proves that a pure economic consideration is inadequate for finding an equitable solution. To have employees pay the employer is ethically unacceptable.

That Bell can find free labour reflects our society’s mishaps. To work a McJob, or anything blue collar is stigmatized. White collar jobs are overvalued. Entering barcodes into a spreadsheet is considered a résumé-worthy (“improved departmental efficiency by 36%”) whereas entering barcodes into a cash register is considered failure. An inseparable stigma exists in post-secondary education as well, where the negative wage indeed exists – but that is a debate for another day.

A similar dilemma applies to volunteerism. Volunteering at a Kumon, a for-profit company, as I did, to amass the 40 high-school community-service hours is similarly misguided.

Policy Considerations

The laws that govern unpaid-internships require companies to derive no value from the free intern. A company’s role is to maximize shareholder returns. Any activity undertaken must therefore benefit the company. So unpaid-internships should not exist. The current laws beat around the bush. According to one lawyer, 90% of young people working for free should be paid, by law. The government’s role is to solve imperfections of the market, so it should illegalize unpaid internships.

Candidate interns are implored to correct the market imperfection themselves. Although the résumé has its place, in no circumstance is a name more important than the job description. In a perfect market economy, individuals are compensated for their worth. Less minimum wage and unionization, the Canadian wage market is largely unregulated. Therefore, a zero-wage job implies the worth of the intern’s job is low. Interns should consider a paid (high-worth) job, even if it isn’t at a desk.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2013/06/21/bc-unpaid-interns.html

 

In

Weathering Toronto

I had suggested before that instead of building a giant public transportation network, we should simply buy everyone bicycles. Without doubt, it would cost less. It would force people to exercise. And for most commutes in the city, it would be faster too. But the idea had one flaw: that it would be impossible to move people in bad weather. But if today proved anything, it was the only way to get home when subways become aquariums.

 

In

On Life and Death

I was going up from the school canteen, desperately searching for Internet. I needed to fulfill some meaningless task: paying a bill, booking a restaurant, I forget. It was one of those hectic inter-trip days filled with boring classes and droning itinerary-planning that take away from the pleasures of exchange. I was hardly calm. It was hardly serene.  The skimpy Internet finally showed up as I climbed to the third floor. 

I might have been expecting an email, but I received the one I didn't want. I re-read it another time and double-checked the sender. It was a one-liner, like a caption of a cartoon: unexpected, thought-provoking, offensive.  It said so much yet so little. It raised more questions than it answered. I reserved my emotions. 

Anyone familiar with these types of ailments will know the number matters. What stage, what grade. One in a thousand, apparently, but that wasn't the probability I wanted to know. I quickly called her and was met with an overriding nonchalance I took to be a sign of gravity, of dealing with the situation. It would have been easy to blame the system which seemed to have missed the signs years ago, but even with that there was restraint. I myself settled on clear-headedness until the numbers were known. There is no point despairing over the unknowable. 

For the entire time, messages like "Hi David" scared me to death. I took refuge in silence, of unknowing. Breaking it was facing the truth, like a ringing phone after an interview. The false alarms are so foreboding.

One such conversation was grave. An instruction from him to oblige any of her phone calls. I read the tea-leaves correctly. They thought it had spread, according to a scan; the number then would be 4. I started thinking about the Obit, like the finale of The Economist. It might have read like this article.

But I didn't start writing. It was a false alarm.

Now, risks of recourse seem low. This is my exceedingly composed reaction to trauma. It is composed because of my characteristically blunt approach to life: people die. The discount rate in life is much too high to spend it doing things as means to ends. Long-term goals are overrated because you might not be alive. 

The Problem with Sports & The Toronto Maple Leafs

The NHL is a protected ecosystem that allows thirty teams to exist when far fewer are economic under true market conditions. 9 years after the first lockout effectively removed the Leafs from contention by (handi)capping its lineup, a second lockout reignited some Stanley Cup dreams, by admitting the Leafs to the post-season predicated on a reduced denominator resulting in an increased standard deviation and therefore the role of luck. Of course, a seven-game series is hardly won by luck. A team that is twice as good will only lose 17% of the time. Therefore, it should not be surprising that the Maple Leafs are on the cusp of reasonably assured destruction (only 8.7% of teams have achieved a comeback from trailing 3-1, nhl.com).

As a hockey player in my youth, my interest in the Leafs peaked in 2004. They had assembled an all-star line-up including triumvirate of Sundin (though injured), Mogilny and Roberts supported by star defensemen Kaberle and McCabe as well as Cujo-replacement Belfour, Nieuwendyk from the Devils that had expelled us one year earlier, Nolan by a last-minute trade from the Sharks, and crowd-favourite Darcy Tucker. The team racked up over a hundred points and defeated the senators for the second straight year in the first round. It lost to the Flyers, what is largely considered to be an upset. Worse, the champion was not one of the five competing Canadian teams, though Calgary did make it to the final.

As a younger person, the draw of sports is benign. It is even helpful in nurturing teamwork, determination, and most importantly, the acceptance of defeat. Sports is a high predictor of future success, more than where a university degree is from. But sports also has an evil side. It is a distraction from what matters in life. It is a modern day release valve for the wars not fought and the build-up of cave-men, hunter-gatherer testosterone. The unglamorous side is exemplified by the riots in soccer stadiums and the incident in Vancouver that seriously damaged our nation’s good reputation.

Sports is an opportunity to turn off the brain and join the bandwagon. Beer guzzling fan(atic)s are modern day Colosseum attenders hungry for a good fight. In the worst case, it is ascribing your own happiness not to your own accomplishments but to the accomplishments of others. Whether they win or lose, you have absolved yourself of any responsibility. I myself found this fourth playoff game a pleasant distraction from issues that require action. But it is a short term fix; when they lose, your problems will not be fixed. You just have less time to deal with them.

In

Intelligent Life: a magazine you have to read

It caters to the business-savvy crowd that devours The Economist, its sister magazine, like soup. It itself is more like dessert: infrequent, inessential but hopelessly yearned for. The Economist explains what keeps us alive (and wealthy); Intelligent Life explores what we live (and work) for. This two-monthly publication is a British version of The New Yorker; it is easier to digest and more practical to read. 

Intelligent Life explores culture. But it is relevant instead of artsy-fartsy. In the past few issues, the opening of the Ritskmuseum, Amsterdam, (which I despairingly missed) and a op-Ed on les miserables (which I just read) made appearances. Pages are lined with short articles on food, music, fashion, museums - all the trimmings of haute-couture but it manages not to be stuffy. Then, longer 5000-7500 word feature articles explore pointless but reassuring articles. Precisely, they reassure us that there is more to life than work. 

For the shrewd businessman (and businessmen-to-be, I.e. you), this publication is a fast-acting culture pill that is easy to swallow. Furthermore, the writing exceptional. The editor's note is not some contrived attempt at uniformity and self-promotion. It actually explains who wrote the articles and why they were chosen; avid followers of The Economist will be surprised that real names are used rather than those of famous thinkers or conquerers. And every article flows in prose and will delight any sesquidilianist. While the economist focuses on clarity of expression, Intelligent Life focuses on delivery. 

I have said many times that The Economist should be required reading before interviews and dates. I was joking about half that statement, though that was before I found out about Intelligent Life. 

The Best Movies of 2012: Academy Awards

2012 is the most contested year for Best Picture since 2008 (Slumdog Millionaire, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Reader). Golden Globe winner Argo is a far-fetched reality of the unusual escape of American hostages in Iran, 1980 and takes such creative liberties as downplaying Canada’s essential role. Les Misérables is a tear-inducing musical spectacle. Lincoln, a favourite, is rhetorical masterpiece of an inspiring politician unseen in today’s political climate. Life of Pi and Beasts of a Southern Wild are beautiful movies set on rafts and islands. Django Unchained won’t win but is exceptionally fun to watch. Amour, a story on the loss of faculties in old age, reignites France’s leading role in the industry. And finally, my favourite, Zero Dark Thirty, retells the capture of Osama Bin Laden. This quick-moving, politically relevant and life-absorbing movie improves on last year’s winner, The Hurt Locker. And I did not watch Silver Lining Playbook, but that’s okay because it won’t win.

In

Misalignment of rewards, the root of all evil

My day in London ended in a subway station (“the tube”). A woman approached me asking for change; I tried my best to help. I had 4£ ($6) in my pocket that I pulled out when I realized she was really a beggar. Yet I was not fazed. I had retracted some pounds from my tip at dinner because the Indian buffet had a completely ludicrous policy against changing plates between courses and thought the change would be better suited in the coffers of a mendicant. How wrong I was. After giving her all my change, she asked me for more. I explained to her that I only had bills to which she said she could give me change. She pulled out a handful of random sized coins that I am unfamiliar with, but probably added up to not much. It was clear my 4£ donation was already the most generous of the night. But as with a PhD in organizational behavior she knew that her foot was in the door and I might be converted to donate more. But as fun as learning the British coinage system sounded, I am far too much of a millennial for a pocketful of change. I politely declined. She gave me a rather disappointed and slightly malicious look as she was leaving, proceeding to pester other tubers. The next  victim simply said no and was left in peace. Somehow, I felt bad. I had done a good thing and yet I am sure I felt worse than my successor who simply said no. If justice prevailed perfectly, there would be no evil. But because sometimes doing a good thing leads to disappointing results, that good is often never done.   

GPA system is a godsend

I might have been the strongest critic of the GPA system when it was first presented. I argued that it adulterated good data, making it less precise. Also, it was non-linear. A 3% is required to go from 3.3 to 3.7, 5% is required to go from 3.7 to 4.0 and the top bracket spans a whole 10%. This has resounding ramifications for some students; many dropped precipitously and have been replaced with a new bourgeoisie. In particular, the new system favors balanced students who can do reasonably well in all subjects, but can’t necessarily be perfect in any.

But I have come to adore the GPA system. I admittedly say this with hindsight. I first attacked GPA at the end of first year when I had an effective downgrade of 82% of my marks and an upgrade on only 9%. You can see why I was disappointed. But two years later, GPA has not negatively affected me in any way. I might not be an impartial party but I will make a few objective comments on the benefits of GPA.

First, that more balanced students win is arguably a good result. It diminishes the benefits attainable by taking easy electives. Thus it encourages broader learning and course selection independent of fickle marks-ism. Second, it reduces stress; it no longer makes perfection the ideal result (now, the ideal result is 89.5%). Finally, it gives students more time for extra-curriculars that intrinsically are more valuable than over-perfecting a course.

Some of the issues with GPA have also been solved. Most notably, research credits now bump a full grade upward instead of the 3% previously rewarded. This deserves the utmost praise, though it came a year too late. I might consider this change to be the most logical and value-adding thing the School of Business has implemented since my arrival. Indeed, I sent Lawrence Ashworth a great thank you. This is not about any individual’s marks, mine least of all. It is about clarity of rules, fairness of competition, alignment of goals and transparency.

There was a time long ago when I had a monomaniacal desire for the perfect exam and the perfect score. I fixed every marking mistake, however small and checked every assignment forever more. I had a margin of error of 12 percentage points when I ended the year, a comfortable amount but only so because of my relentlessness. I look back to those days fondly but also with relief. I have more time to dedicate to other things. Quite simply, I can enjoy my life more. Thank you, GPA. 

In

Random Walk: Behind the Name

I have added a link to the "About this Blog" page. It links to the extended essay I wrote in grade 12. It concerns a random walk, a stochastic process but it is not a markov chain. That is to say, direction matters. Unlike a markov chain, future events are dependent on past events. This is a different Random Walk than the "Random Walk down Wall Street" because of this distinction.

Link to my paper.

Ensuring Fairness: An Oft-Forgotten Mechanism of Free-Market Society

Capitalism is a wonderful mechanism for cost-effective regulation. This might be counter-intuitive as airwaves are filled with the darker side of capitalism. But free-market societies with personal rights protection and profit incentives surely have less crime. One reason is because these societies tend to be richer. But another is because in a free-market society there is a well-defined zero-sum game: that one person’s gain is another person’s loss. This system places the onus of regulation on the very people who have the most to gain from whistle-blowing.

Two particular events illustrate this concept. One is Greyhound’s order to the London Rocket (a company started by two Queen’s Commerce students) to “cease and desist” on the basis that a license is required to transport paying customers on Ontario highways. On the issue, I am respectfully neutral. What it illustrates is that the Ontario Highway Transportation Board had no need to regulate its jurisdiction; Greyhound did it out of profit motive. Greyhound only called out the London Rocket, an ancillary operation to the company’s flagship route (Kingston). Greyhound doesn’t run trips to Kingston and thus had no motive to blow the whistle.

A second event is more particular to the Queen’s Commerce program. It had a run-in that could have tipped our reputable program into notoriety. It would probably have escaped the notice of administration. But it was stopped by students who felt a responsibility to their program and interested in keeping their school (and thus their resumes) from the overhang of scandal.

There is no doubt that capitalism needs reform. But its many redeeming qualities should not be forgotten. I think its ability to create fairness is a most important of these qualities.

In

The Commerce Education

The Queen’s School of Business is of the two best business schools in Canada. I have no doubt it has brought out the best in me. It has proved to be a prudent choice for my undergraduate studies. At the end of my first year, I had the choice to transfer to Brown University if not for the Ivy League name, then perhaps for Emma Watson. But I chose to stay with Queen’s for its strong recruiting opportunities, for the unique extra-curricular experience, and for my friends.

Today is effectively the end of my third year at Queen’s. In the last five days, I wrote four exams and taught two QUIC tutorials. There is but one exam more in the off-distance. My laundry basket is overflowing in anticipation for the parental unit parade. My piano is undusted and singing again. Christmas and Paris has never seemed closer. But as happiness builds in anticipation, the far-future again comes as foreboding. This year, I will decide whether to pursue post-undergraduate studies in the field of mathematical finance.

On Thursday, I wrote the STAT 455 exam. This is the hardest course I have ever taken and therefore, there was much self-affirmation to be accomplished. I needed to believe I will succeed in mathematical finance. Stochastic Processes is a branch of probability concerned with randomness in time. A Random Walk, for example, is a stochastic process. I entered the Grant Hall with as much determination as ever and left unresolved. I returned home and modelled the problem on EXCEL (with YASAI); I have never been so happy to see a Poisson distribution (4b). I might have let out a barbaric yawp.

A queuing question casually made an appearance (Q3). It extended the single-server model of COMM 341 by modelling in a probability that customers facing a longer line are less likely to join. There are no formula sheets. The problem is to derive the formulae.

To do this is not simple but it was the simplest question on the exam. To focus on understanding concepts instead of plug-and-chug arithmetic is rewarding. For one, formulae need not be memorized. Assumptions are thoroughly considered. Finally, it is broad and wide-ranging in scope. And that is the chief criticism I have of Commerce education. What we learn is almost exclusively a special case, i.e. a star in the night sky. One clearly overshadows the other. It all makes what we learn in Commerce a bit frivolous.

In the last month, I had the pleasure of meeting the creator of http://qcumber.ca/ and a diverse group of students from other faculties. We played the ubiquitous exchange game called Contact and words like “Realpolitik” and “Carthage” made appearances. What a refreshing change from “Franklin Templeton”. Commerce was a resoundingly positive decision. And these experiences propel me to seriously consider something similar but a bit different.

A comprehensive definition of happiness (part 1)

In this article, I improve on my previous attempts to define happiness. I am convinced that happiness is reconciliation between expected and actual results. However, the relationship between the two has been ill-defined. But, let us try.

For simplicity, we will assume there is a linear relationship. That is, happiness is exactly the difference between expected and actual results:

ϵ=Y-X

Here, ϵ is happiness, Y is actual results and X is expected results. Taking Y to be a function of X (since Y happens after X)

Y=X+ϵ

1.png

This gives an equation for a linear regression through the origin with beta = 1. Happiness is the error term. Three conditions must hold. ϵ must be normally distributed, be independent sample-to-sample and have constant variance. These are mostly reasonable. For example, constant variance verifies that people of all income levels are similarly happy. Independence sample-to-sample means day-to-day variations can be rocky, another generally accepted consequence of life. That ϵ is normally distributed, however, is less substantiated. Kurtosis (fat tails, i.e. bi-polar) and skewness (like the perennially disappointed French) are likely characteristics of happiness. However, for ease of analysis, we will assume ϵ is normal.

Implication 1: The goal should be the decrease standard deviation. Which graph would you rather have?

2.png

σ = 10, μ = 0

3.png

σ = 50, μ = 0

Implication 2: Learn to predict results more accurately

4.png

σ = 10, μ = -10

Overly-optimistic predictions result in unhappiness

5.png

σ = 10, μ = +10

Overly-pessimistic predictions result in happiness

My Paper Published in Mathematics Magazine

Cover of Mathematics Magazine, Oct 12. 

Cover of Mathematics Magazine, Oct 12. 

My paper entitled “Skunk Redux” on probability was published in the October 2012 edition of Mathematics Magazine. I am pleased to announce it is the most-read math magazine and is consistently used as reference in upper-year math courses. But the tangible benefit is of course that I am now searchable on JSTOR.

The question I deal with is familiar to anyone taking Math 111 - Linear Algebra. It is by far the most relevant and accessible mathematics course at Queen’s, not least because of Peter’s tireless commitment to pedagogy (Dr. Peter Taylor is the co-author). In Skunk, a pair of dice is rolled again and again until either you choose to sit or at least one 1 comes up. If you sit, your payoff is the dice sum of all your previous rolls. If at least one 1 comes up while you are still standing, your payoff is zero.

It is not a difficult article to read. Everything is elementary. It contributes nothing to mathematical lore and pales in comparison to the other articles in the magazine. I make tangential comments about risk-taking (“It took some willpower not to allow my emotions to steer me toward the standard freshman crowd—the eternal optimists who luckily see the world as their oyster, untainted by the rationality I sometimes wish I could do away with”) and bad habits (“Peter started rolling the dice on that first day of class. As usual, I did not bring anything to class, not even a calculator, so I had to ballpark it.”) True mathematicians will be turned off. 

The paper links my undergraduate career from the first day of class, through the disenfranchising inaugural year when I sought refuge in the mathematics department to compensate for my failures in Commerce, to the otherwise miserable summer of 2011 when the paper was officially accepted, to the current quandary of what role mathematics will play in my career. 

Mathematics is the most elegant of all disciplines. Its study is deeply satisfying because it makes principles of ancillary courses go full circle. The queuing models of 341 are stochastic processes in the form of Markov chains (Stat 455). Their time-reversibility property make equations easily derivable. Finance, of course, is all about statistics and regression. The most salient criticism of commerce is that more technically-minded disciplines can easily learn the material. The reverse does not hold. This explains why McKinsey seems so intent on hiring engineers.

My relationship with mathematics is on-off. In grades 8, 10 and 12, in the heat of rediscovery, I placed well into the top tiers in Canada for mathematics competitions. In grade 12, I was invited to write the Canadian Mathematics Olympiad. In the off years, I characterized the subject as a passive, unimportant, socially disparaging, unrewarding field relegated to nerds and self-satisfied intellectuals. More recently, I rediscovered the discipline. I hope it plays some part in my future.

To read the magazine, click here (starts on pdf page 29).

Thanksgiving: I have contributed nothing to society but have received much in return. Thank you.

Life has dulled to a hum and I couldn’t be happier. I am enjoying a quiet thanksgiving from a lonely Kingston. For one weekend, the primary contributors of rambunctiousness emigrate to congregate with distant relatives, eat disproportionately fat turkeys and most importantly, appease their financiers. Such pensive times allow for a celebration of the true purpose of thanksgiving. That is to give gratitude to the social fabric and institutions that allow for our continued success. I have contributed nothing to society but have received much in return. Thank you.

Shortly after claiming that my future would be “unsettling” on my (well received) September 15 post, I found myself with a clear sense of direction for the next seven months. It involves restaurants, mathematics and Paris – there are worse combinations.

With a stroke of an electronic pen, I moved Canada’s unemployment rate a few negligible ticks in the right direction. But there was no escape from buyer’s remorse. Third year commerce students see the world as their oyster. They are free agents in a seller’s market. Their insecurities are actually options, which we know to have much value. It is difficult to see many years of effort culminate in something as fleeting as a signature. And the question that will always jut out is “did I make the right decision.”

The timing was particularly awkward. After a year and half of networking and career testing, the entire decision unravelled during the first two weeks of school. That was unexpected. I thought I would have gone through the official process in November. This was historically the month of reckoning, when kings were crowned. During my first two years, I had always envisioned third-year recruiting to be a stressful ordeal, as were March 2010 and January 2011. My experience was vastly different. I submitted my beautified résumé with some pompous footnotes and ended up with exactly what I wanted. Many watering hole conversations with sages later, I realized I had a chance to be self-fulfilled and happy. I signed the offer.

What I have recently learned is that third year commerce is not the end-all. Rather, it is a beginning to a difficult and demanding life. Wannabe financiers bring up a famed diagram that shows a distinct path to “success”. The misconception is that third-year recruiting defines success. This summer spelled my disillusionment. I saw enough despair to know the hardship lies after. With all the firm-cycling and industry-hopping witnessed this summer, third-year recruiting is certainly not the end. There is no timeline. Life is more interesting than that.

This newfound attitude might best be described as short-termism. Without gateways at prescribed times, there is no need for a plan. Heading in the right direction is enough; how you get there is the sum of everyday decisions made because they are good and righteous in themselves, because they fit with your values. Hopefully, those values include such venerable qualities like hard work, commitment and sacrifice as these will surely help in the longer term. People with these qualities may very well decide to over-work themselves in the short term and propel themselves into the future. But embracing hard work, commitment and sacrifice is a lifelong pledge. To claim to work hard now to have it easier in the future is simply indefensible.

That is to say you should never do something because it is a means to an end. You should do it because you want to.